Abstract:

This report presents a system analysis of the agricultural and water sector of Uganda. The
overall objective is to identify areas where problems might arise in the future and see how
these might affect the whole system.
In order to model and analyze these two sectors, two tools are being used; WEAP and GAEZ.
WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) is a program that enables modeling of a
water system, including inflows, outflows, demand sites etc.
For certain climatic data and crop production analysis, the online database GAEZ (Global
Agro-Ecological Zones system) is used. In this database, one may chose different time
periods and extracts information based on the future IPCC climate scenarios.
For future years, different scenarios and combinations of them are investigated. This is done
by among some; changing the precipitation, adding future hydropower plants and increasing
the agriculture water demand. The latter due to increase of crop production and ensuring food
security in the future by meeting the 2700 kcal/capita/day requirement. For climatic data and
crop production, two different IPCC climate scenarios are used.
The results of the study show that there is a possibility of water deficit in certain areas and
unmet hydropower demand in the future. Furthermore, there are crops that appear to be more
resistible to climate change, but also require larger amount of irrigation in some cases. The
extent of deficit, unmet demand and crop production show a variation between the different
scenarios. However, these results will no matter scenario all affect each other and the system
as a whole. Hence an integrated system approach is needed when planning and discussing
future policy strategies.