Abstract:

We used the Livestock Analysis Model (LAM) to estimate the current and projected amount of methane, a greenhouse gas, produced by the cattle population in Uganda in the period from 2000 to 2030. The LAM is a data-intensive computer model developed by the United States Environment Protection Agency. The data required for the model were derived from official documents of the Government of Uganda. Secondary data on human and cattle population and production target of beef and milk were subjected to stepwise regression analysis and the outputs were used in the LAM. Primary data for the LAM were also generated through a national livestock survey. According to the LAM, the total methane emissions from cattle in Uganda in the year 2000 were estimated at 337,796 tons. This amount is projected to nearly triple by the year 2030 unless appropriate mitigation measures are put in place in the country. Among indigenous cattle breeds, the Zebu and Nganda had the highest methane emissions per unit of product, generating approximately 1 kilogram of methane per kilogram of milk produced, while the Ankole cattle emitted approximately 0.566 kg of methane per kilogram of milk produced. On the other hand, the improved breeds emitted only 0.123 kg of methane per kilogram of milk produced. The results of this study show that the cattle sector in Uganda has a potential for international investments for reduction of methane emissions in line with the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol.