Abstract:

The study involves application of the economic surplus technique and
mathematical programming to set priorities in the context of Uganda’s national
agricultural research system. An ex-ante impact assessment study was
conducted, and the impact of research on crops, livestock, agricultural
engineering, post-harvest, and natural resource management was estimated
using an economic surplus model developed at the International Service for
National Agricultural Research (ISNAR). Priorities are determined at both
regional and national level. The social costs and benefits of using research to
achieve the food security objective are also analyzed.
A linear programming model was designed to formulate an optimal portfolio of
research projects in a framework of constraint-oriented planning. Resource
allocation decisions target constraints rather than commodity programs, as has
been the trend in past empirical work. The results indicate that the optimal
portfolio would increase total social welfare by as much as 60% when efficiency
is the sole objective. Approximately 60% of the optimal portfolio is accounted
for by only ten percent of the total number of projects. Incorporating a food
security objective and attaching weights to project benefits results in an
average total welfare loss to society equivalent to five times the benefits from
increased food security. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is more
sensitive to errors in estimates of the supply elasticity when supply is highly
inelastic. Introducing a five-year lag from the time of technology release before
the yield gain is fully realized did not have a significant effect on total economic
surplus estimates and marginal benefits from R&D.