Abstract:

Rice (Qryza sativd) production is growing rapidly not only as a major source of food and
nutrition to the global populace but also as a strategic crop for poverty reduction among
subsistence farmers in Uganda. Despite the socio-economic and nutritional importance of rice,
average yield per hectare in Uganda is only half of the potential yield under good
management practice and production systems. This situation is partly attributed to its high
moisture demand which makes its cultivation in rainfed system more vulnerable to climate
variability. Although, literature has linked vulnerability of rainfed rice production to climate
variability, there is limited empirical study in Uganda to quantitatively demonstrate impacts
of climate variability on rice production (direction/magnitude) and how farmers cope. This
study was motivated by the need to examine the relationships between climate variability,
coping strategies and rainfed rice production in Northern farming system agroccological zone
of Uganda which is comprised of 17 districts. And of these, the major four rice growing
districts including Lira, Oyam, Gulu and Amuru were involved in the study. The aim of the
study was to generate information which would enhance rice production for increased food
and nutrition security and livelihood improvement of the rural population. The study
objectives were to characterise rainfed rice production systems, determine effects of climate
variability on rainfed rice production, and assess farmers’ coping strategies in rainfed rice
production to climate variability. The study used four-year farm-level data on rice
production and climate (2013 - 2016). Descriptive analysis was used to determine key
distinguishing characteristics of the different rainfed rice production systems. The result
showed a decline in rice yields from 2 t ha’1 during 2013 to 1.6 t ha’1 during 2016 but there
was significant yield difference between lowland and upland rainfed production systems. The
result also showed significant differences in production practices between the two rainfed rice
production systems. To determine the extent of rice production efficiency, the stochastic
frontier model was estimated. The estimation result indicated efficiency level al 76.6%.
Qualitative analysis was performed to determine farmers' views of climate variability. The
result showed that farmers are experiencing variability in onset, distribution and amount of
rainfall and temperature conditions. To determine extent of variability and trends in rainfall
and temperature, coefficient of variations, rainfall anomalies, precipitation concentration
index (PCI), parametric approach (least square regression) and non-parametric tests (Mann-
Kendall and Sens slope estimator) were estimated. The results showed high coefficient of
variations of monthly rainfall exceeding 30%, precipitation concentration index was
xiii
moderate at 1 1.3. Rainfall anomalies revealed intcrannual variability with eight incidences of
droughts in three decades. In addition, negative trend in rainfall was detected whereas
temperatures portrayed positive trends. Influence of climate variability on rainfed rice
production was determined using fixed effects estimator. The result indicated reduction in
yields from increasing variability in rainfall and temperature. However, an increase in mean
rainfall had positive effects on yields. Subsequently, different coping strategies applied
included changing rice variety, shifting rice fields along the valley area, adjusting planting
dates, and regulating water. To ascertain which farmers’ characteristics influence their
decision to use coping strategies, binary probit regression was performed and the findings
showed that exposure and effects of climate variability, soil type and gender influence
decisions to cope. Finally, to determine contribution of coping strategies to yields, pooled
least square regression was performed and differential contribution of coping strategies to
rice yield was observed. Comparatively major contributions to yield were made by planting
date, regulating water and combination of strategies. The study therefore concludes that there
are differences between lowland and upland rainfed rice production systems in terms of
yields and production practices used by farmers. The rice farmers are producing below the
frontier and increased variability in rainfall and temperature negatively affects rice
production. Coping strategies substantially improve rice yield but the type of strategies
adopted are influenced by farmers’ characteristics. The study recommends extension support
to farmers through promotion of suitable practices for yield enhancement and cosl/input
minimisation. Increase awareness about climate variability to farmers and coping/adaptation
measures. Government should provide water harvesting technologies to supplement rainfall.
Further research to validate current temporal coping strategies for long-term sustainable
measures in systems with high exposure and vulnerability. There is need to extend the current
study to the broader country by including other agroccological zones of the country as well as
exploring the relationship between climate variability and coping strategies.